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Fish & seafood outlook

Fish & seafood outlook

What's happening in the market in November

NOVEMBER AT A GLANCE:

  • Best of Skipper's Catch: Brown Crab, Poole MSC Manila Clams, Brill, Cornish & Scottish Hake, Ray wings, Monkfish.
  • Salmon – slower growth in Norway due to sea lice problems which is expected to lead to price increase later in the month.
  • Cod & Haddock – more fresh fish should be landed and we should see prices easing back.
  • Sea Bass & Bream – steady prices and good supply on majority of grades.
  • Tuna & Swordfish – prices are improving due to increased availability.
  • Hake – prices are high due to more demand from international buyers.
  • Lobster - Landings in Canada should increase with prices easing.
  • Frozen Squid - Illex catches significantly lower YOY, prices remain high.
  • Seasonal increases due to lower landings: Brill, Grey Mullet, John Dory, Lemon Sole, Mackerel, Megrim, Monkfish, Ray, Turbot.

CURRENCY: As Brexit negotiations appear at an impasse and market anxiety over Brexit continues to rise, the pressure on the Pound is increasing, with investors concerned that the threat of a no-deal Brexit is rising. The Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate fell to a fresh six-week low and is seen at around 1.29. At the same time Euro has hit August lows which is helping the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate to pull back (currently trading at 1.117 and hopefully resume its uptrend. Against the Norwegian Kroner, GBP is currently seen at around 10.76 NOK.. (as of 24th October 2018).

FRESH SALMON

- High levels of sea lice treatments being carried out in Norway, together with lower sea temperatures, have been slowing down growth levels.

- Harvest weights have also dropped due to fish being harvested earlier which drives prices up for the larger fresh fish as availability becomes tight.

- Total Norwegian harvest volumes leading up to October were 10% down YOY.

- Indications are that price rises are expected throughout November as a mor traditional Christmas ramp up develops.

- Contract prices are significantly higher than spot prices at the moment which leads to inflation in frozen smoked Salmon.

FRESH COD & HADDOCK

- There will be generally more fish available next month as fishermen are back out catching Cod and Haddock as holiday season is now over.

- This means we will see some price reductions.

FRESH FARMED SEA BASS & BREAM

- Bass and Bream availability is stable with good supply across majority of grades on both species (apart from 1.5kg+ Bass) and steady prices.

FRESH HAKE

- There's been significantly high pricing on Hake in the recent weeks driven by an excessive worm issue in the Bay of Biscay, which in turn forced all purchasing countries to buy Scottish fish instead.

- We should see prices ease slightly as we move through November.

FRESH EXOTICS

- Tuna and Swordfish prices have reduced thanks to increased availability. We are expecting supply from Oman to enter the market in early December.

- December will, however, also see a seasonal price uplift driven by religious holidays and fishing area closures to protect the stocks.

- Other exotics such Red Snapper, Barramundi and Mahi Mahi remain stable supply and price-wise.

FRESH LOBSTER

- UK landings are decreasing as water temperatures rise so any catches will command a higher price.

- Landings in Canada should increase with prices easing as more fishing grounds open up.

FRESH PLAICE

- We are approaching the spawning season and Plaice will be of lower quality so fishermen will switch to targeting other flatfish like Turbot. Prices will remain high until March/April.

FROZEN SQUID

- Landings of Illex Squid were poor again earlier this year, and the September season of Todarodes Squid has also been disappointing.

- This has led to a reduced supply of raw material which has impacted prices.

OTHER FROZEN FISH & SEAFOOD

We are expecting price increases on some of our frozen species in the New Year driven by a number of factors; more details to follow in the comingeditions of Outlook.

- Basa - shortage of raw material and buyers switching from other more expensive species like Cod.

- Cod & Haddock – 2019 quotas reduced from 2018 6.5% and 15% respectively.

- Crayfish – continued demand in China is driving prices up.

- Goujons – customers are avoiding vessels carrying out pulse Plaice fishing while there is also a shortage of raw Lemon Sole.

- Smoked Mackerel – poor landings and reduced quota in 2019.

- Scampi - long-term decline in landings forcing price rises to Scampi boats and processors.

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