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Fish & seafood outlook

Fish & seafood outlook

What's happening in the market in September

SEPTEMBER AT A GLANCE:

  • In season & at their best: Dover Sole, Native Lobster, Plaice, Native Crab, Squid, Megrim, Crayfish, Sardines, Mackerel, Hake, Pollack
  • Salmon – prices from Norway and Scotland are expected to rise due to an increasing demand after summer and a drop off in Chilean production.
  • Cod & Haddock – new quotas starting in September, landings should improve towards the second part of the month.
  • Sea Bass & Bream – new generation Bass will start, which will in turn keep prices stable.
  • Tuna & Swordfish – the end of the monsoon season is approaching so more boats are expected to go out, improving availability and prices.
  • Frozen Squid – early ending to the poor season will keep prices high.
  • Frozen Scampi - long-term decline in Scampi landings has forced price increases to Scampi boats and processors.
  • Frozen coated products – less offcuts are causing prices to increase on coated lines. 

CURRENCY (as of 19th August):  Sterling continues to sink to historic lows against the US Dollar and Euro following reports of likely shortages of food and medicine supplies in the wake of a 'no deal' Brexit that is being pursued by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It is said though, that Pound could slightly firm up if Boris Johnson’s government faces an imminent vote of no confidence before the Brexit date on the 31st October.

19th July vs. 19th August:

GBP–EUR down: 1.116 - 1.091

GBP-USD down: 1.252 - 1.211

GBP-NOK up: 10.729 - 10.866

FRESH SALMON

- We are expecting a slight increase in pricing from both Norway and Scotland due to a range of factors:

  • the dip in summer demand across Europe traditionally coming to an end
  • Chile seeing a larger than forecast drop off in production which will see markets traditionally buying from Chile, such as China and the USA, turning to the European suppliers,
  • harvest weights through July and August remaining lower than expected resulting in larger weight band prices being significantly driven up comparing to the lower weight bands,
  • uncertainty around the Pounds performance continuing to put pressure on imports to the UK.

- Some analysts predict a rise to continue on forward pricing for Q4 of 2019 going into 2020.

FRESH COD & HADDOCK

- With the introduction of the new quotas at the end of August, September should bring some respite following on from the current tight availability and High pricing.

- Although historically there is always a slight lag before boats will start fishing, we should see availability increase throughout the month and the Monthly average prices lower than in August, weather permitting.

- The quotas are still to be confirmed, but it is likely that Cod allowances will broadly stay the same and Haddock will see a 22% overall increase.

- A large reduction is expected in the Baltic Sea so increasing global demand will apply pressure to other Cod fisheries, adversely affecting pricing.

FRESH FARMED SEA BASS & BREAM

- Availability and prices should be stable for September and October, as the new generation Bass will be harvested in these months.

FRESH TUNA & SWORDFSIH

- The monsoons should ease and with more boats going out to sea and the exotic fish landings improving, we should see prices easing as well.

- We will be getting our Tuna and Swordfish from the Maldives, India, Sri Lanka and the Seychelles.

SEASONAL FRESH FISH

- Weather will impact landings pushing a lot of fish, like Lemon Dole and Brill, to deeper water and out of the reach of inshore fleets.

- Dover Sole – we should see a migration starting along the South Coast so prices should ease back.

- Langoustines - Low landings of the larger size (U10) keep prices high.

- Grey Mullet – we have been experiencing the slowest year for this species that local fishermen have seen for years.

- Megrim – the current exchange rates are favourable for the buyers in France and Spain so domestic prices remain high.

- Squid – landings should improve as normal at this time of year.

FROZEN SQUID

- With very scarce catches and boats already coming back, the Argentine Illex Squid (used for processing) season has ended early, before the official closing on the 31st August.

- Bad weather and dispersed biomass were the main reasons behind the poor landings following the good start of the season in January.

- In addition, impact of GBP-USD exchange is also having an effect on prices.

FROZEN SCAMPI

- There has been significant long-term decline in Scampi fishing around the British coast and Ireland.

- There are also additional price rises on coating ingredients, packaging and labour.

- Along with continued high demand, these are forcing price increases to Scampi boats to encourage greater fishing effort.

FROZEN ALASKA POLLACK

- We see prices rising on Alaska Pollack as buyers trade down from Cod and Haddock, and mostly smaller size fish are being landed.

- The EUR-USD exchange rate is also having an impact on the prices.

FROZEN COATED PRODUCT

- It is difficult to buy double frozen white fish fillets in block, used for fishcakes and fish fingers, as factories are improving yield and leaving very littleproduct left to block freeze.

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From the latest updates on what's been landed where through to weather reports and customer reviews. M&J Seafood keeps you close to what's breaking in the industry.